This is the first part of a new series for my blog in which I will take some thoughts from my head and attempt to explain them in words. Hopefully I will make some sense along the way.
How lucky are you?
Luck is an ever present force in poker. Every big pot you lose after starting with the
best hand is a cruel reminder of the terrible injustice present in this
universe.
But luck is a difficult concept to pin down. Are some people luckier than others? If I experience good luck today should I consider myself lucky and expect more good luck tomorrow? Or does it all balance out - so good luck today means bad luck tomorrow?
Wikipedia defines luck as "good fortune which occurs beyond one's control, without regard to one's will, intention or desired result."
So luck is a name we give to outcomes beyond our control. However, I think we often jump to conclusions about luck before we consider all of the outcomes.
For example, imagine you're traveling home on a cold, dark night and you're running as fast as you can to catch the last bus of the day. Just as you arrive the bus pulls away from the station and you're stranded, forced to spend the night in a cheap B&B with no wi-fi and a lumpy mattress. Pretty unlucky, right?
At breakfast the following morning you read the papers and find out that the bus crashed. Luckily, (there's that word again) no one was killed, but everyone sustained minor injuries. I bet you feel pretty lucky that you missed that bus now.
Weeks later you find out that the passengers sued the bus company and all received thousands of pounds in compensation - all for a few scratches and bruises! Missing that bus has cost you thousands of pounds! How unlucky!
NOW suppose that the excess money leads all of those passengers to develop dangerous drug addictions... (OK, I think we can stop there).
The point is that the perception of luck is a matter of perspective. In this example our perspective changed because of unforeseen future outcomes. Often we jump to conclusions prematurely.
Let's apply this logic to poker. Imagine I'm on the bubble of a $100 6-max SNG and all three players have equal chip stacks. I end up getting all my money in pre-flop with AA vs an opponent with KK.
Pretty lucky right? There's no way my opponent could have folded KK, and if the hands had been reversed they would've been played the same way. So I was really lucky to get my money in as a huge favourite, rather than a huge underdog.
But wait... before I've even finished my fist pump the board brings an unlikely third king and I bust out of the tournament. Talk about unlucky! Why do I even bother? I can't even win when I'm a huge favourite! The idea that I could have just as easily had the kings is long gone and I now feel cursed by the universe.
OK, the tournament is over and I lost, so there can be no more future outcomes to change our perspective, right?
But wait... because I busted I finished that game early. So maybe I start the next game earlier, and that sets me off on a chain of different games, decisions and outcomes that I wouldn't have been on had I won the first SNG. What if I go on to win the next 10 SNGs in a row? I wouldn't have even played those games if I'd won the first game, so now I feel pretty lucky (or at least I probably should).
Poker is one long session. Until you stop playing for good future outcomes are never fully decided. The influence of that first game would continue into my next session and set me on a different life path. Is it a better or worse path? There's no way of knowing. So why worry about it?
One final example, what if after I lose that first game I go on to lose every other game for the rest of the day and feel tilted and depressed. I guess that has to be somewhat unlucky?
Well again, there's no way to truly know. Naturally I would have preferred that not to happen, but it's not the end of my lifelong poker session yet. Besides, poker isn't the be all and end all. I can take a step back and remind myself that I was born in one of the wealthiest countries in the world. That I have a family who loves me. That I was lucky enough to get married this year to my best friend in the world. That I get to play poker for a living. That I have cats. That I ate a delicious slice of chocolate cake 10 minutes ago. The list goes on!
My point is that luck is not only a matter of perspective, but that we also have a choice in where we base our perspective. Eventually, whether I consider myself to be lucky or unlucky isn't down to external events, it's down to me!
TL;DR Luck is a matter of perspective, and it's often difficult to know which perspective is correct due to unknowable potential future outcomes. Because of that, perception of luck is often a choice.
Hopefully that made sense. Next Friday I'll cover the next installment in the series: How to be luckier (part 2): Hard work.
Until next time, good luck.
David
